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Will Narendra Modi come back as Prime Minister?

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By Philip Mudartha
Bellevision Media Network

13 Apr 2019: The general elections to the 17th Lok Sabha have been announced. The Election Commission (EC) has scheduled them to commence on April 11 and end on May 19. The voting will be held in 7 phases, due to the special security needs of the country. The vote counting will take place on May 23 and the results will be announced on the same day.

Will Modi come back as Prime Minister?

In our Udupi-Chikkamagaluru constituency, as in the whole country, this question is on everyone’s lips: those who want him to get a second term and those who want him to go. Even a year ago, neither side doubted that the 2019 Lok Sabha election had already been decided – in his favor. But since then, much has changed. New political equations have emerged. Modi himself has lost the sheen. He, in privacy to his party workers, is reported to have said that he can no longer be expected to change the party’s fortunes single-handedly.

Losses in Hindi Heartland

BJP lost three Hindi heartland states, namely Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh in the recent Vidhana Sabha (VS) elections. In all these three states, Modi is reportedly more popular than Rahul. The Prime Minister addressed rallies’ after rallies and left no stone unturned. These elections were the do or die for him and BJP. The opinion polls, exit polls, and popularity surveys were manipulated to show that the ruling dispensations of BJP will comfortably retain power. Alas! That was not to be!! Congress Party won all and formed stable governments with established state leaders as CMs, with limited interference from the High Command!

The loss of face in Karnataka 2018 assembly elections

The above stated losses happened on the heels of the loss of face in Karnataka in May 2018. The Karnataka loss has cost it its confidence and the ability of their sole star campaigner Modi to win votes! BJP emerged as the single largest party in the house with 104 MLAs (+66), but fell short by 9 to have a simple majority. Its tally improved from 40 MLAs in the outgoing assembly. That is actually a shot in the arm for a party trying to recapture its gateway to the south. Under normal circumstances, BJP would have performed an Operation Lotus 2.0 and staked claim to form the government, even as the Congress and JDS might have been bargaining for chips of power. But the Congress under Rahul Gandhi played a trick: it swallowed its pride of being the larger party in the post-poll alliance with 80 seats (-42) and nominated HDK, the JDS leader and son of JDS supremo HD Devegouda, the former Prime Minister, to lead the alliance government. With 117 MLAs of the post-poll alliance, the governor could not but ask it to form the government; which it did, with relatively less acrimony and bargaining for prime berths in the ministry. Two DCMs were created and given these berths to the Congress Party. Former CM Siddaramaiah, Senior Leader Parameshwara and D.K. Shivakumar, the party money bag, all played along, guarding a few MLAS whose loyalty was doubtful. BJP failed to lure 9 MLAs from the alliance stable.

Expert prediction was that the Cong-JDS alliance would collapse before the LS polls. But it has survived for 11months now and proved the pundits wrong. For Congress-JDS it is a fight for survival of the alliance government. For BJP, it is re-establishment of its control of its gateway to south India. Rahul Gandhi rose admirably to the occasion and gave JDS 8 seats, retaining 20 for his party. Bear in mind that JDS had won only 2 in 16th Lok Sabha elections, in their bastions of Hassan and Mandya. Despite being in power in the state, the Congress Party had won only10 seats from their rural strongholds. It could not retain our home constituency of Udupi-Chikkamagaluru, which it lost to Shobha Karandlaje of BJP in 2014. Jayprakash Hegde, the sitting MP with good performance failed to retain his seat. Communal card and caste politics played out along with the Modi wave created in the country by his rabble rousing rallies!

The upswing of BJP in Karnataka since 2014 LS Elections

BJP had won 16 seats, including the prestigious seat of Bangalore South, from where Congress Party had fielded Nandan Nilakeni, the celebrity founder and Director of Infosys. He lost for 3 reasons: a) (Late) Ananth Kumar was a BJP money bag, b) all young IT guys and girl went on picnic instead of staying at home and vote for their ex-boss Nandan! c) His opponent, Ananth Kumar, was a Kannada Brahmin which caste controlled this LS segment.

In 2019, the BJP is fighting solo in all 28 seats; with its money bags Sriramulu and G. Janardhana Reddy becoming MLAs in 2018 VS elections, having been released from jail on bail by NDA-2 (means Modi), but not fully exonerated in the Bellary Iron Ore Mining Scams, and Yeddyurappa being the shadow CM who is waiting to mount Lotus 3.0 as soon as exit polls are leaked on April 23, and Ananth Kumar dead and gone, the party will fall back on RSS and its sundry saffron booth activists to win as many seats as possible. Yet, I predict it to win not more than 10 seats, may even fall to 8 seats. (Both the coastal seats will be lost!)

An assessment of state wise prospects of BJP

No.

State

2019

2014

Description of 2014 in black, of 2019 in red fonts

Andhra

TDP=16 (Ally in 2014) YSRC=7 (2019 post-poll ally?)

Arunachal Pradesh

(with local party as ally)

Assam

(With AGP as Ally). The angry Bengali vote may against BJP as reaction to Citizen Bill 2018. Then seats may be less than 10.

Bihar

+11 Allies. (JDU, joined BJP and its two former allies with hopes that its tally will improve to 17 from 2. Older allies, 2 of them, remain with NDA. In 2019 allies count 26, which is +13.

Chhattisgarh

Congress controls the state now since 2018 VS elections.

Goa

Gujarat

BJP is losing its marbles here but may want to see Modi as PM.

Haryana

+2 Allies. For 2019, same INLD may be retained. AAP is gaining ground.

Himachal Pradesh

(+2 allies). There is anti-Khanduri, CM, sentiment, may not want BJP again.

Jammu and Kashmir

Jammu is polarized towards Modi Hindus, Kashmir for angry Muslims.

Jharkhand

+2 Ally (+2 Ally)

Karnataka

EXCLUSIVE

Comments on this Article
Ronald Sabi, Moodubelle	Wed, April-24-2019, 8:53
Good analysis. I do not mind Modi back at central again. Asking votes in the name of Modi for non performing candidates in coastal that too for a second term is absolutely pointless since Modi is not going to attend our local needs. BJP should have placed capable faces like JP Hegde and Brijesh Chowta for the development of coastal region!
Gilbert Lobo, Kattingeri	Sun, April-14-2019, 7:49
KARNATAKA- The BJP has a strong presence in the coastal region of the state, but a recent attempt to topple the state government failed. KERALA- the BJP does not have any elected MP in the Lower House of Parliament. A controversy over the entry of women into the Sabarimala temple has angered Hindus, which could benefit the BJP. RAJASTHAN – A farm crisis will play a major role. MADHYA PRADESH - Hindi heartland state is stronghold of BJP it remains to be seen . MHHARASHTRA – Agrarian distress is a key issue in the state . TAMIL NADU – This election is key test for the AIADMK and opposition DMK. ANDHRA PRADESH – A state where neither the BJP nor Congress are in strong position . UTTAR PRADESH – It is key battleground between the BJP and SP,BSP. BIHAR- Mr Nitish Kumar’s habit of dumping alliance partners remains a worry for the BJP. ASSAM – state has seen unrest over illegal immigration from Bangaladesh, and the BJP has sought to capitalise on this . ODISHA – The BJP has emerged as the second-largest party here and could pose a significant challenge to the BJD .WEST BENGAL- The state is key battleground for BJP as it seeks to losses in key stronghold Rajasthan and UP

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