AAP se pehle, AAP se jyada: AK guns for top job

By Philip Mudartha
Bellevision Media Network

Jan 31, 2014 : The General Elections are round the corner. The country is on election mode for more than a year now.  Larger than life cut-outs of Narendra Modi have been glaring down at us in most towns and village nukkads in battlefield states all over the country. No to be left behind, Rahul Gandhi too flashes his Amul Baby Charm benevolently at us.

 

Have you heard of AAP? I asked the stranger sitting next to me in a rickety bus plying through Moodubelle. He retorted: Yes, my knee is weak at 65, but my mind is sharp.  I probed him further: Tell me then why AAP and Kejriwal are not on billboards in this region?

 

 

 

Kejriwal is in our hearts, within us the ordinary people, he said.

He put it very wisely, showing the wit the common man is capable of. This man was neither Christian nor Muslim, communities that perceived inimical to Namo, and who form 40% of local population.

BJP, the principal opposition party in 15th Lok Sabha, is near certain to win forthcoming general elections. It has anointed Namo as our next PM. A nationwide and global image makeover exercise of Modi as the Loh Purush (iron Man) and Vikash Purush (Development Man) is unleashed. In addition to rallies and public meetings on the electoral battlefield, advertisements on billboards and in media, modern visual and digital media technologies are creating hype around Modi as a man in possession of a magic wand to cure all our national ills and misfortunes.  BJP is busy manufacturing its mascot in the molds of Indira Gandhi but is masking him as Sardar Patel, Vajpayee and god. 

Who will be the next PM of India in 2014?

In contrast, Indian National Congress (INC) has no star leader with matching charisma, persona and mass appeal. Modi is salesman par excellence, rue Congressmen. They are unwilling to cultivate charismatic leaders connected to the masses and those who have risen from the party ranks. The dominant public perception that it’s preeminent agenda is continuation of dynastic rule by Nehru-Gandhi first family propped by scions of former rulers of princely states and sycophantic hand-picked men and women. They implicitly project Rahul Gandhi (RaGa) as their PM nominee, but shy away from explicitly stating it. None of its leaders, including PC Chidambaram, AK Antony, Shinde, etc. with decades of administrative experience in government, are willing to play their own raga against RaGa or each other and practice internal party democracy, a principle RaGa speaks so much about.

Is there no alternative to INC and BJP?

The 5 year term of PV Narasimha Rao (PVN) is increasingly recognized as a break from our socialist past. He is credited with steering our nation out of sovereign bankruptcy, after India pawned its gold reserves to leverage foreign debt in 1991. When he took charge as PM, we had money to pay for one week’s imports. A self-confessed committed socialist in Nehruvian mold, PVN should have been the last man to steer a course if non-ideological but pragmatic economic policy. It does not matter if the cat is black or white, as long it catches mice is a famous quote credited to a famous Chinese leader. But, that is what PVN practiced. Is there a PVN on the horizon who do not belong to INC and BJP, parties identified with either left of center or right of center economic agendas?

Yeh left, center, right kya hota hei bhai? Asks Kejriwal

In an interview, TV anchorman Rajdeep Sardesai accuses Arvind Kejriwal (AK) and AAP of not having an economic policy. Private Primetime TV considers that AAP is rookie association of opportunist anarchists capitalizing on public anger against corrupt government and political leaders. What brilliant madness it is to dream of contesting national general elections, winning a majority of seats on its own and forming AAP government at center to provide an alternative to the politics of Namo and RaGA.

According to AK, a diverse nation like India cannot be governed by a cast-in-concrete economic policy. In classic erudition of AAP, using plumbing language, AK has said: kya farak padta hei paani left se aaye, ya right se? It is important ti nal mein paani aaye. Pragmatic and aspirational, for his supporters. Anarchist and confused, for his critics. Who will decide?  The TV anchors? The Psephologists and sample populations participating in pre-poll surveys? Political parties and their online supporters themselves? Who?

Indian Voter and Ballot box will decide

A month before National Capital Territory (NCT) Elections-2013 in Delhi, published pre-poll surveys were as follows:

Survey conducted by	Seats won by AAP	Seats won by BJP	Seats won by Congress
AAP-Cicero	38-50	11/17/13	08/14/13
BJP	5	36	11
Times Now, C-Voter	18	25	24

 

Even the exit polls surveys conducted by ORG, the market intelligence firm hired by India Today Group declared on 5 Dec 2013 a clear majority of 41 seats to BJP, placing INC in second place with 20 seats and AAP trailing at poor third place with 6 seats.

Contrast that with the actual result: BJP 31, INC 8, and AAP 28. While surveys use statistical tools to predict social behavior, they are not substitutes to general elections in a democracy based on one person one vote principle.

 

 

Can AK outsmart RaGA and stop Namo in his tracks as Alternative Third Candidate?

AK is a showman, no doubt, as envious Congresspersons are not tired of pointing out. He can mask his unbridled ambitions, intellectual arrogance and sanctimonious intolerance with his brilliant enactment of simplicity, honesty, integrity and passionate focused single minded commitment to serve the people.  He is successful despite his harsh and often foul mouth because he is no doubt simple, honest and committed. Which CM will brave the cold winter night on the streets of Delhi to lead his party workers from the front in the battleground clash with a recalcitrant bureaucracy of Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA)? AK made the point clear that MHA assigns to itself all powers of law and order machinery but shies away from owning responsibility to control crime in the national capital. His predecessor, electorally defeated Sheila Dixit, made noises through legal process for 15 years to but failed to drive home this point to Delhiites. They deserted her chiefly because of her failure to make Delhi safe, especially for women.

AK and AAP are in this gamble, but, defining their own rules of the game. If the party asks, AK will contest Lok Sabha polls. AAP may have a massive grassroots following in Delhi and nationwide, but fact remains that major decisions are made by a small group of kitchen cabinet led by AK himself. Therefore, it is foregone conclusion that AK is the AAP nominee for PM, not the third potential candidate but the first and foremost. Namo and RaGA are second and third in their lexus.

AAP se pehle, AAP se jyada, AK guns for top job

I have received mixed reactions from my readers. Some inputs are at this website, many on the timeline on my Facebook profile and a few in private messages. Most fear that AAP will fail and feel AAP should wait till it establishes and proves its mettle in governance. In second position are people who approve of their going national decision is right. A few are critics of AAP and consider them as a temporary phenomenon destined to fail and cite the AAP government’s Dharna as example of bad governance.

I visited Delhi a month before my travel in that bus plying through Moodubelle. At that time, AAP was waiting in the wings to check-mate both BJP and INC and form the state government. I will come back for a third sequel sooner than later with that story and more.